In 2018, Olumayowa Okediran published a scenario analysis of Nigeria's future to 2030. He was not the first person to write about Nigeria's challenges. He was among the first to build a testable framework around two specific variables, state strength and service delivery, and argue that those two variables, more than oil prices, more than elections, more than personality, would determine what the country looks like in 2030.
Navigate 2030 is the tracking tool for that argument. Every quarter, 50 verified PESTEL events are assessed against the book's framework. The events are sourced, checked, and placed on a scenario matrix. The result is not a prediction and not an opinion poll. It is a structured reading of what is happening now against a framework built before most of it happened.
The tracker is produced by the author. It carries no government funding, no party affiliation, and no commercial interest in the outcome. Where evidence is disputed, as it often is in Nigeria on everything from casualty figures to attack attribution, the tracker says so. The goal is not to deliver comfort. It is to be honest about where the country is and what the book's framework says that means.
"Okediran has applied his expertise with some of the world's top scenario planning organisations to deliver what is certain to be one of the most realistic projections of Nigeria to 2030."
- Japheth Omojuwa, Founder & Chief Strategist, The AlphaReach
"Written with patriotic zest and intellectual candor, Navigate gives me joy that our youth are not sleeping after all."
- Tunde Fagbenle, Author
"There is no better time in the history of Nigeria to bring up the need for better foresight, scenario analysis and forward thinking into the discourses of the multifarious problems confronting the country."
- Oluwabunmi Ajilore, Foresight Advisor, FAO / GFAR
"It is an early attempt to put observers' feet firmly on the ground and give them an informed sense of what to expect of Nigeria over the next decade and a bit. Okediran introduces the reader to a very useful series of indicators and trends that will certainly provide those not intimately briefed on the country with some of the hard data and information necessary to start developing an informed view."
- Dr Frans Cronje, Director, Centre for Risk Analysis, South Africa and Author of A Time Traveller's Guide to South Africa
